Air-sea coupling influence on projected changes in major Atlantic hurricane events

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100649

Derrick K. Danso , Christina M. Patricola , Jaison Kurian , Ping Chang , Philip Klotzbach , I.-I. Lin

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) projections with atmosphere-only models are associated with uncertainties due to their inability to represent TC-ocean interactions. However, global coupled models, which represent TC-ocean interactions, can produce basin-scale sea surface temperature biases in seasonal to centennial simulations that lead to challenges in representing TC activity. Therefore, focusing on recent individual major hurricane events, we investigated the influence of TC-ocean coupling on the response of TCs to anthropogenic change using atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional model simulations. Under an extremely warm scenario, coupling does not influence the signs of projected TC rainfall and intensity responses. Coupling, however, does influence the magnitude of projected intensity and especially rainfall. Within a 500 km radius region of the TCs, the projected rainfall increases in coupled simulations are 3–47 % less than in the atmosphere-only simulations, driven by enhanced TC-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the former. However, the influence of coupling on the magnitude of projected rainfall could vary considerably over the regions of highest rainfall generated by TCs.

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海气耦合对大西洋主要飓风事件预测变化的影响

纯大气模式由于无法表现热带气旋与海洋的相互作用，因此对热带气旋的预测存在不确定性。然而，代表热带气旋与海洋相互作用的全球耦合模式会在季节到百年模拟中产生海盆尺度的海表温度偏差，从而给代表热带气旋活动带来挑战。因此，我们利用纯大气和大气-海洋耦合区域模式模拟，重点研究了近期个别主要飓风事件，研究了热带气旋-海洋耦合对热带气旋响应人为变化的影响。在极暖情景下，耦合不会影响预测的热带气旋降雨量和强度响应。但是，耦合会影响预测强度的大小，尤其是降雨量。在热带气旋半径为 500 公里的区域内，耦合模拟的预计降雨量增幅比纯大气模拟的降雨量增幅小 3-47%，原因是前者由热带气旋引起的海面温度冷却增强。不过，在热带气旋产生的最高降雨量区域，耦合对预测降雨量的影响可能会有很大不同。

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来源期刊

Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

7.50%

发文量

102

审稿时长

33 weeks

期刊介绍： Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances