Bart Roelofs , Daniella Vos , Yaskara Halabi , Izzy Gerstenbluth , Ashley Duits , Maria E. Grillet , Adriana Tami , Maria F. Vincenti-Gonzalez
{"title":"Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis","authors":"Bart Roelofs , Daniella Vos , Yaskara Halabi , Izzy Gerstenbluth , Ashley Duits , Maria E. Grillet , Adriana Tami , Maria F. Vincenti-Gonzalez","doi":"10.1016/j.parepi.2024.e00338","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Dengue viruses are a significant global health concern, causing millions of infections annually and putting approximately half of the world's population at risk, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue virus spread is crucial for effective prevention of future outbreaks. By investigating these patterns, targeted dengue surveillance and control measures can be improved, aiding in the management of outbreaks in dengue-affected regions. Curaçao, where dengue is endemic, has experienced frequent outbreaks over the past 25 years. To examine the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Curaçao, this study employs an interdisciplinary and multi-method approach. Data on >6500 cases of dengue infections in Curaçao between the years 1995 and 2016 were used. Temporal and spatial statistics were applied. The Moran's I index identified the presence of spatial autocorrelation for incident locations, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness. The majority of cases were recorded in highly populated areas and a relationship was observed between population density and dengue cases. Temporal analysis demonstrated that cases mostly occurred from October to January, during the rainy season. Lower average temperatures, higher precipitation and a lower sea surface temperature appear to be related to an increase in dengue cases. This effect has a direct link to La Niña episodes, which is the cooling phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The spatial and temporal analyses conducted in this study are fundamental to understanding the timing and locations of outbreaks, and ultimately improving dengue outbreak management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37873,"journal":{"name":"Parasite Epidemiology and Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405673124000023/pdfft?md5=f2ece93501bc523aa25275cd0cf0b2b4&pid=1-s2.0-S2405673124000023-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Parasite Epidemiology and Control","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405673124000023","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Dengue viruses are a significant global health concern, causing millions of infections annually and putting approximately half of the world's population at risk, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue virus spread is crucial for effective prevention of future outbreaks. By investigating these patterns, targeted dengue surveillance and control measures can be improved, aiding in the management of outbreaks in dengue-affected regions. Curaçao, where dengue is endemic, has experienced frequent outbreaks over the past 25 years. To examine the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Curaçao, this study employs an interdisciplinary and multi-method approach. Data on >6500 cases of dengue infections in Curaçao between the years 1995 and 2016 were used. Temporal and spatial statistics were applied. The Moran's I index identified the presence of spatial autocorrelation for incident locations, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness. The majority of cases were recorded in highly populated areas and a relationship was observed between population density and dengue cases. Temporal analysis demonstrated that cases mostly occurred from October to January, during the rainy season. Lower average temperatures, higher precipitation and a lower sea surface temperature appear to be related to an increase in dengue cases. This effect has a direct link to La Niña episodes, which is the cooling phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The spatial and temporal analyses conducted in this study are fundamental to understanding the timing and locations of outbreaks, and ultimately improving dengue outbreak management.
期刊介绍：
Parasite Epidemiology and Control is an Open Access journal. There is an increasing amount of research in the parasitology area that analyses the patterns, causes, and effects of health and disease conditions in defined populations. This epidemiology of parasite infectious diseases is predominantly studied in human populations but also spans other major hosts of parasitic infections and as such this journal will have a broad remit. We will focus on the major areas of epidemiological study including disease etiology, disease surveillance, drug resistance and geographical spread and screening, biomonitoring, and comparisons of treatment effects in clinical trials for both human and other animals. We will also look at the epidemiology and control of vector insects. The journal will also cover the use of geographic information systems (Epi-GIS) for epidemiological surveillance which is a rapidly growing area of research in infectious diseases. Molecular epidemiological approaches are also particularly encouraged.
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