{"title":"Testing the accuracy of geographical profiling considering the effect of the number of crimes","authors":"Aiko Hanayama, Shumpei Haginoya, Hiroki Kuraishi","doi":"10.1002/jip.1625","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present research compared geographic profiling (GP) methods, including spatial distribution strategies (SDS) and probability distance strategies (PDS), to account for the effect of the number of crimes on the accuracy of GP. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among three burglar groups (a total of 333 offenders) with different sizes of crimes (1–5, 6–15 and 16 or more) committed before arrest showed that the accuracy decreased in a group with a larger size of crime. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among the number of crimes (3–10) using 150 offenders who committed 10 or more crimes showed a slight improvement in the accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. In addition, the PDS (vs. SDS) showed a higher accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. The findings encourage practitioners to use the PDS and research implications are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":46397,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1625","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The present research compared geographic profiling (GP) methods, including spatial distribution strategies (SDS) and probability distance strategies (PDS), to account for the effect of the number of crimes on the accuracy of GP. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among three burglar groups (a total of 333 offenders) with different sizes of crimes (1–5, 6–15 and 16 or more) committed before arrest showed that the accuracy decreased in a group with a larger size of crime. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among the number of crimes (3–10) using 150 offenders who committed 10 or more crimes showed a slight improvement in the accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. In addition, the PDS (vs. SDS) showed a higher accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. The findings encourage practitioners to use the PDS and research implications are discussed.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling (JIP-OP) is an international journal of behavioural science contributions to criminal and civil investigations, for researchers and practitioners, also exploring the legal and jurisprudential implications of psychological and related aspects of all forms of investigation. Investigative Psychology is rapidly developing worldwide. It is a newly established, interdisciplinary area of research and application, concerned with the systematic, scientific examination of all those aspects of psychology and the related behavioural and social sciences that may be relevant to criminal.
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