Challenges in Searching for Vietnam's Growth Drivers Through 2030

Abstract

Vietnam's long-term economic growth comparisons with ASEAN nations have been striking since its 1986's economic reforms. Such key factors as economic liberalization, a young population and low-cost labor, knowledge diffusion, and the manufacturing sector have driven Vietnam's growth. Until 2023, Vietnam has the potential to capitalize on several favorable circumstances, including the diversion of trade and investment from China, the growth of the middle class, and the global digital transformation. Nevertheless, Vietnam's economic growth will confront various obstacles and a declining trajectory that predates the COVID pandemic. To circumvent the risk of falling into the middle-income trap, this paper proposes “active” economic integration, labor productivity, innovation and research and development, the services sector, and green growth as new growth drivers for Vietnam till 2030. Considering the many policy ideas put forth by the Vietnamese government and the World Bank, this paper presents several distinct recommendations on institution reform and human capital accumulation.