Jannet Jamii, Mohamed Trabelsi, Majdi Mansouri, A. Kouadri, Mohamed Faouzi Mimouni, M. Nounou
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Due to its dependence on weather conditions, wind power (WP) forecasting has become a challenge for grid operators. Indeed, the dispatcher needs to predict the WP generation to apply the appropriate energy management strategies. To achieve an accurate WP forecasting, it is important to choose the appropriate input data (weather data). To this end, a medium-term wind power forecasting using reduced principal component analysis (RKPCA) based Random Forest Model is proposed in this paper. Two-stage WP forecasting model is developed. In the first stage, a Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) and reduced KPCA (RKPCA)-based data pre-processing techniques are applied to select and extract the important input data features (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and relative humidity). The main idea behind the RKPCA technique is to use Euclidean distance for reducing the number of observations in the training data set to overcome the problem of computation time and storage costs of the conventional KPCA in the feature extraction phase. In the second stage, a Random Forest (RF) algorithm is proposed to predict the WP for medium-term. To evaluate the performance of the proposed RKPCA-RF technique it has been applied to data extracted from NOAA’S Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) network at Bondville station, located in USA. The presented results show that the proposed RKPCA-RF technique achieved more accurate results than the state-of-the-art methodologies in terms of RMSE (0.09), MAE (0.23), and R2 (0.85). In addition, the proposed technique achieved the lowest overall computation time (CPU).
期刊介绍:
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.