{"title":"Covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10649-023-10274-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Previous studies on Bayesian situations, in which probabilistic information is used to update the probability of a hypothesis, have often focused on the calculation of a posterior probability. We argue that for an in-depth understanding of Bayesian situations, it is (apart from mere calculation) also necessary to be able to evaluate the effect of <em>changes of parameters</em> in the Bayesian situation and the consequences, e.g., for the posterior probability. Thus, by understanding Bayes’ formula as a function, the concept of covariation is introduced as an extension of conventional Bayesian reasoning, and <em>covariational reasoning</em> in Bayesian situations is studied. Prospective teachers (<em>N</em>=173) for primary (<em>N</em>=112) and secondary (<em>N</em>=61) school from two German universities participated in the study and reasoned about covariation in Bayesian situations. In a mixed-methods approach, firstly, the elaborateness of prospective teachers’ covariational reasoning is assessed by analysing the arguments qualitatively, using an adaption of the Structure of Observed Learning Outcome (SOLO) taxonomy. Secondly, the influence of possibly supportive variables on covariational reasoning is analysed quantitatively by checking whether (i) the changed parameter in the Bayesian situation (false-positive rate, true-positive rate or base rate), (ii) the visualisation depicting the Bayesian situation (double-tree vs. unit square) or (iii) the calculation (correct or incorrect) influences the SOLO level. The results show that among these three variables, only the changed parameter seems to influence the covariational reasoning. Implications are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48107,"journal":{"name":"Educational Studies in Mathematics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Educational Studies in Mathematics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10649-023-10274-5","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"教育学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Previous studies on Bayesian situations, in which probabilistic information is used to update the probability of a hypothesis, have often focused on the calculation of a posterior probability. We argue that for an in-depth understanding of Bayesian situations, it is (apart from mere calculation) also necessary to be able to evaluate the effect of changes of parameters in the Bayesian situation and the consequences, e.g., for the posterior probability. Thus, by understanding Bayes’ formula as a function, the concept of covariation is introduced as an extension of conventional Bayesian reasoning, and covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations is studied. Prospective teachers (N=173) for primary (N=112) and secondary (N=61) school from two German universities participated in the study and reasoned about covariation in Bayesian situations. In a mixed-methods approach, firstly, the elaborateness of prospective teachers’ covariational reasoning is assessed by analysing the arguments qualitatively, using an adaption of the Structure of Observed Learning Outcome (SOLO) taxonomy. Secondly, the influence of possibly supportive variables on covariational reasoning is analysed quantitatively by checking whether (i) the changed parameter in the Bayesian situation (false-positive rate, true-positive rate or base rate), (ii) the visualisation depicting the Bayesian situation (double-tree vs. unit square) or (iii) the calculation (correct or incorrect) influences the SOLO level. The results show that among these three variables, only the changed parameter seems to influence the covariational reasoning. Implications are discussed.
期刊介绍：
Educational Studies in Mathematics presents new ideas and developments of major importance to those working in the field of mathematics education. It seeks to reflect both the variety of research concerns within this field and the range of methods used to study them. It deals with methodological, pedagogical/didactical, political and socio-cultural aspects of teaching and learning of mathematics, rather than with specific programmes for teaching mathematics. Within this range, Educational Studies in Mathematics is open to all research approaches. The emphasis is on high-level articles which are of more than local or national interest.? All contributions to this journal are peer reviewed.
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