The shape of business cycles: A cross-country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner, Daniel M. Rees
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Abstract

We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre-recession levels, in line with Friedman's theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rate recoveries are less complete. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In contrast, the extent of labour market tightening or output growth during a boom generally does not provide any information about the intensity of the subsequent recession. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction-driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent.

商业周期的形态:弗里德曼采摘理论的跨国分析
我们在 1970 年至 2019 年间的 18 个发达经济体中检验了弗里德曼的商业周期拔节理论在国际上的适用性。我们发现,在劳动力市场较为灵活的国家(澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、瑞士、英国、美国),失业率通常会恢复到经济衰退前的水平,这与弗里德曼的理论相符。在其他国家,失业率的恢复则不那么彻底。不同国家的产出恢复情况差异较小,但不同时期的差异较大:平均而言,衰退期间国内生产总值下降的一半会持续存在。相比之下,经济繁荣时期的劳动力市场紧缩程度或产出增长通常并不能提供有关随后衰退强度的任何信息。就行业而言,制造业的衰退通常会完全逆转。与此相反,建筑业驱动的衰退往往与房地产价格泡沫破灭有关,往往具有持续性。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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