Numerical simulation and projection of wind resources in the northern South China Sea

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q2 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
Bo Peng , Yuqing Zhang , Weiwen Wang , Fan Yang , Xuemei Wang , Yunsong Ji , Shidong Ma , Fareng Yao , Lizheng Ao
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

High-resolution assessment of future wind resources is crucial for formulating appropriate energy strategies. However, the response of offshore wind energy to changing climate remains inconclusive. This study uses bias-corrected CMIP6 and time-varying sea surface temperature data to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and project future changes in wind energy resources in the northern South China Sea (SCS) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The findings indicate that wind resources in the waters north of 18°N in the northern SCS generally show an increased change, with greater wind resources in 2100 than in 2050. The SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibits a more significant increase than the SSP2–4.5 scenario. The future wind energy changes in the western and eastern nearshore waters of Guangdong, where numerous offshore wind power plants are currently established, are largely consistent with the overall change in the northern SCS. Nevertheless, there may be a decreased change in future wind resources in the central and eastern regions of the SCS.

南海北部风力资源的数值模拟和预测
对未来风能资源的高分辨率评估对于制定适当的能源战略至关重要。然而,近海风能对气候变化的响应仍无定论。本研究利用经过偏差校正的 CMIP6 和时变海面温度数据来驱动天气研究和预测(WRF)模型,并预测 2050 年和 2100 年 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下南海北部风能资源的未来变化。研究结果表明,南中国海北部北纬 18 度以北海域的风能资源总体上呈上升变化,2100 年的风能资源大于 2050 年。与 SSP2-4.5 情景相比,SSP5-8.5 情景显示出更显著的增长。广东西部和东部近岸海域目前已建立了众多海上风力发电厂,其未来风能变化与沙中 线北部的总体变化基本一致。不过,未来沙中 线中部和东部地区的风能资源变化可能会减小。
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来源期刊
Journal of Sea Research
Journal of Sea Research 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
86
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Sea Research is an international and multidisciplinary periodical on marine research, with an emphasis on the functioning of marine ecosystems in coastal and shelf seas, including intertidal, estuarine and brackish environments. As several subdisciplines add to this aim, manuscripts are welcome from the fields of marine biology, marine chemistry, marine sedimentology and physical oceanography, provided they add to the understanding of ecosystem processes.
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