Risk-based approach to choosing the production asset management strategy for energy company

V. Levin, N. Guzhov, D. A. Boyarova
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Abstract

RELEVANCE: The possibility of a reasonable choice of an alternative strategy for the organization of maintenance and repair (M&R) of the power company's equipment is a guarantee of the successful implementation of its strategic priorities. The tasks in this direction are quite relevant.PURPOSE: To develop a unified methodology that, from the general standpoint of a risk-based approach, would allow comparing two alternative strategies for managing the assets of an energy company "by periodicity, operating time" and "by technical condition", according to a set of key criteria for the effectiveness of M&R.METHODS: When solving problems, methods of forming and adjusting schedules for repairs of electrical equipment, calculating reliability and probabilities of failure in the power supply system of consumers, taking into account its circuit features, assessing the technical condition of equipment according to non-destructive testing and diagnostics, comparing the costs of maintaining and restoring reliability and damages from its violations were used.RESULTS: A risk-oriented methodology has been developed and verified, which makes it possible to evaluate and select the optimal equipment maintenance strategy for the energy company according to uniform efficiency criteria. An algorithmic implementation of the developed methodology is obtained, which is the basis of a computing complex for choosing and making decisions. The verification of the methodology and algorithm is carried out on the example of a real object – a power supply system for oil production consumers using reliable operational and diagnostic information.CONCLUSION: The results obtained fully compensate for the lack of methodological possibilities in comparing two basic alternative strategies for electrical equipment maintenance based on a single risk-based approach. The developed methodology is a unified decision-making tool at the stage of alternative analysis. The illustration of the methodology by a real numerical example demonstrates the consistency of the solutions obtained with the results of expert assessments and operational experience.
基于风险的能源公司生产资产管理战略选择方法
意义:合理选择电力公司设备维护和修理(M&R)替代战略的可能性是成功实施其战略重点的保证。目的:从基于风险的方法的总体角度出发,制定一种统一的方法,以便根据维护和修 理有效性的一系列关键标准,对 "按周期、运行时间 "和 "按技术条件 "管理能源公司 资产的两种备选战略进行比较。方法:在解决问题时,使用了制定和调整电气设备维修计划的方法,计算用户供电系统的可靠性和故障概率,同时考虑其电路特征,根据无损检测和诊断评估设备的技术状况,比较维护和恢复可靠性的成本以及违反可靠性造成的损失。结果:开发并验证了一种以风险为导向的方法,该方法可以根据统一的效率标准为能源公司评估和选择最佳设备维护策略。所开发方法的算法实现是选择和决策计算综合系统的基础。结论:所获得的结果完全弥补了在比较基于单一风险方法的电气设备维护的两种基本替代战略方面缺乏方法论可能性的不足。所开发的方法是替代分析阶段的统一决策工具。通过一个真实的数字例子对该方法进行了说明,证明了所获得的解决方案与专家评估结果和操作经验的一致性。
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