Case study of continental-scale hydrologic modeling's ability to predict daily streamflow percentiles for regulatory application

Abstract

Regulatory practitioners use hydroclimatic data to provide context to observations typically collected through field site visits and aerial imagery analysis. In the absence of site-specific data, regulatory practitioners must use proxy hydroclimatic data and models to assess a stream's hydroclimatology. One intent of current-generation continental-scale hydrologic models is to provide such hydrologic context to ungaged watersheds. In this study, the ability of two state-of-the-art, operational, continental-scale hydrologic modeling frameworks, the National Water Model and the Group on Earth Observation Global Water Sustainability (GEOGloWS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Streamflow Model, to produce daily streamflow percentiles and categorical estimates of the streamflow normalcy was examined. The modeled streamflow percentiles were compared to observed daily streamflow percentiles at four United States Geological Survey stream gages. The model's performance was then compared to a baseline assessment methodology, the Antecedent Precipitation Tool. Results indicated that, when compared to baseline assessment techniques, the accuracy of the National Water Model (NWM) or GEOGloWS ECMWF Streamflow Model was greater than the accuracy of the baseline assessment methodology at four stream gage locations. The NWM performed best at three of the four gages. This work highlighted a novel application of current-generation continental-scale hydrologic models.