Investigating the Potential Strategic Implications of COVID-19 for Biological Weapons Pursuit: A New Expert Simulation.

IF 2.1 4区 医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Health Security Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-19 DOI:10.1089/hs.2023.0029
Gary A Ackerman, Brandon Behlendorf, Hayley Peterson, Jenna LaTourette, Anna Wetzel, Douglas Clifford
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Abstract

To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state's own or its rivals' vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.

调查 COVID-19 对生物武器追捕的潜在战略影响:新的专家模拟。
为了研究 COVID-19 大流行对领导人生物武器战略决策的影响,本研究采用了一种名为 "异步战略动力学红色团队 "的前瞻性模拟技术。通过远程异步进行的沉浸式多媒体模拟,240 名经过精心挑选和策划的生物武器或相关国家的专家参与者(以及 60 名天真的参与者)参与了这项工作。在我们的 30 个国家样本中,对实施某种类型的生物武器计划(防御性或进攻性)的模拟兴趣保持在较低到中等水平。虽然这种兴趣在 COVID-19 大流行模拟发生后有所增长,但总体而言有限,只有少数国家对进攻性生物武器的兴趣有显著增长。当直接提到为什么他们的国家在 COVID-19 之后会改变对生物武器的兴趣时,最常提到的原因是(1) COVID-19 展示了生物武器扰乱社会和造成大规模经济损失的威力,(2) 这场大流行揭示了本国或其竞争对手对 COVID-19 等疾病的脆弱性,以及无法有效地应对和遏制此类疾病。总之,尽管大流行病在全球范围内造成了严重后果,但模拟结果表明,大多数国家不太可能大幅改变其在进攻性生物武器方面的战略态势。
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来源期刊
Health Security
Health Security PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
6.10%
发文量
70
期刊介绍: Health Security is a peer-reviewed journal providing research and essential guidance for the protection of people’s health before and after epidemics or disasters and for ensuring that communities are resilient to major challenges. The Journal explores the issues posed by disease outbreaks and epidemics; natural disasters; biological, chemical, and nuclear accidents or deliberate threats; foodborne outbreaks; and other health emergencies. It offers important insight into how to develop the systems needed to meet these challenges. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, Health Security covers research, innovations, methods, challenges, and ethical and legal dilemmas facing scientific, military, and health organizations. The Journal is a key resource for practitioners in these fields, policymakers, scientific experts, and government officials.
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