Prioritizing beliefs and the formation of expectations

IF 3.4 3区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT
Timo Ehrig
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

How do expectations for novel opportunities—like Amazon from the perspective of 1998—come about? To form such expectations, decision-makers need to derive plausible conclusions that go beyond the available information by interpreting it with the help of theories. I explain why asymmetric expectations among rational individuals can exist, even when information is symmetric: Differences in the willingness to question of (defined as “a preference ordering over”) elementary theoretical explanations of the novelty bring about heterogeneity in final expectations. I further argue that one source of better expectations is the skill to choose the relative willingness to question beliefs and thus the skill to integrate theories. I identify the skills of decision-makers to detect and resolve inconsistencies and to decide when to give up beliefs again as sources of advantages in forming expectations.
优先考虑信念和形成期望
对新机遇的预期是如何产生的?要形成这样的预期,决策者需要借助理论解释现有信息,从而得出超越现有信息的合理结论。我解释了为什么即使在信息对称的情况下,理性个体之间也会存在非对称预期:对新颖性的基本理论解释(定义为 "对......的偏好排序")的质疑意愿不同,会导致最终预期的异质性。我进一步认为,更好预期的一个来源是选择质疑信念的相对意愿的技能,从而也是整合理论的技能。我认为决策者发现和解决不一致之处以及决定何时再次放弃信念的技能是形成预期的优势来源。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
13.50%
发文量
52
期刊介绍: The European Management Review is an international journal dedicated to advancing the understanding of management in private and public sector organizations through empirical investigation and theoretical analysis. The European Management Review provides an international forum for dialogue between researchers, thereby improving the understanding of the nature of management in different settings and promoting the transfer of research results to management practice. Although one of the European Management Review"s aims is to foster the general advancement of management scholarship among European scholars and/or those academics interested in European management issues.
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