A behavioral gap in survival beliefs

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Risk and Insurance Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI:10.1111/jori.12459

Giovanna Apicella, Enrico G. De Giorgi

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Life span uncertainty (longevity risk) impacts several economic decisions. Individuals can form and revise their survival beliefs making use of behavioral heuristics. We propose a model of sentiment, in which individuals are assumed to switch between optimistic and pessimistic expectations of their health. When optimism is persistent in the face of health shocks, or when individuals are more likely to change their sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic than otherwise, our model predicts survival underestimation at young ages and overestimation at old ages. An empirical analysis based on the longitudinal data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe validates our model.

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生存信念的行为差距

寿命的不确定性（长寿风险）会影响若干经济决策。个人可以利用行为启发法形成并修正自己的生存信念。我们提出了一个情绪模型，假定个人会在对自身健康的乐观和悲观预期之间切换。当乐观情绪在健康冲击面前持续存在时，或者当个体更有可能从悲观情绪转变为乐观情绪时，我们的模型就会预测个体在年轻时会低估其生存率，而在年老时则会高估其生存率。基于欧洲健康、老龄和退休调查纵向数据的实证分析验证了我们的模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Risk and Insurance Multiple-

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

15.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Risk and Insurance (JRI) is the premier outlet for theoretical and empirical research on the topics of insurance economics and risk management. Research in the JRI informs practice, policy-making, and regulation in insurance markets as well as corporate and household risk management. JRI is the flagship journal for the American Risk and Insurance Association, and is currently indexed by the American Economic Association’s Economic Literature Index, RePEc, the Social Sciences Citation Index, and others. Issues of the Journal of Risk and Insurance, from volume one to volume 82 (2015), are available online through JSTOR . Recent issues of JRI are available through Wiley Online Library. In addition to the research areas of traditional strength for the JRI, the editorial team highlights below specific areas for special focus in the near term, due to their current relevance for the field.