Modulations of Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-biweekly Oscillation on Early Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis over Bay of Bengal and South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) are prominent components of the intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. This study examines the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) on an intraseasonal scale in May–June during 1979–2021. Results show that the convection associated with the two types of intraseasonal oscillations simultaneously modulates TC genesis in both ocean basins. As the MJO/QBWO convection propagated, TCs form alternately over the two basins, with a significant increase (decrease) in TC genesis frequency in the convective (non-convective) MJO/QBWO phase. Based on the anomalous genesis potential index associated with the MJO/QBWO, an assessment of the influence of various factors on TC genesis is further assessed. Middle-level relative humidity and lower-level relative vorticity play key roles in the MJO/QBWO modulation on TC genesis. The MJO primarily enhances large-scale cross-equatorial moisture transport, resulting in significant moisture convergence, while the QBWO generally strengthens the monsoon trough and induces the retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high, increasing the regional lower-level relative vorticity. The potential intensity and vertical wind shear make small or negative contributions. This study provides insights into the neighboring basin TC relationship at intraseasonal scales, which has a potential to improve the short-term prediction of regional TC activity.