Natural Disaster and Food Security in African Countries: Evidence from an Experimental Bayesian Spatial Model

IF 4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Assaad Ghazouani, Mehdi Ben Jebli, Khurram Shahzad
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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of rainfall, temperature, and drought on sorghum, millets, wheat, and maize crops in Africa. Spatial Bayesian propensity score modeling (BSPSM) analysis is used to estimate means for specific geographic populations using spatial Bayesian models. The results show that rising temperatures and drought have a negative impact on the yield of these crops, thus compromising food security and livelihoods of African populations. Adverse effects include decreased productivity, increased crop losses, and altered grain quality. In light of this challenge, it is important to take adaptive measures to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures. Recommended measures include the adoption of resilient agricultural practices, such as the use of heat-adapted seeds, efficient irrigation, and the establishment of agroforestry systems. In addition, risk management strategies such as crop insurance and crop diversification are essential to improve farmers’ resilience to climate change.

Abstract Image

非洲国家的自然灾害与粮食安全:来自实验性贝叶斯空间模型的证据
本文研究了降雨、温度和干旱对非洲高粱、黍、小麦和玉米作物的影响。采用空间贝叶斯倾向得分建模(BSPSM)分析法,利用空间贝叶斯模型估算特定地理种群的均值。结果表明,气温升高和干旱对这些作物的产量产生了负面影响,从而损害了非洲人口的粮食安全和生计。不利影响包括生产力下降、作物损失增加和谷物质量改变。面对这一挑战,必须采取适应措施,减轻气温上升的影响。建议采取的措施包括采用适应性强的农业做法,如使用适应高温的种子、高效灌溉和建立农林系统。此外,作物保险和作物多样化等风险管理战略对于提高农民抵御气候变化的能力至关重要。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
27.30%
发文量
228
期刊介绍: In the context of rapid globalization and technological capacity, the world’s economies today are driven increasingly by knowledge—the expertise, skills, experience, education, understanding, awareness, perception, and other qualities required to communicate, interpret, and analyze information. New wealth is created by the application of knowledge to improve productivity—and to create new products, services, systems, and process (i.e., to innovate). The Journal of the Knowledge Economy focuses on the dynamics of the knowledge-based economy, with an emphasis on the role of knowledge creation, diffusion, and application across three economic levels: (1) the systemic ''meta'' or ''macro''-level, (2) the organizational ''meso''-level, and (3) the individual ''micro''-level. The journal incorporates insights from the fields of economics, management, law, sociology, anthropology, psychology, and political science to shed new light on the evolving role of knowledge, with a particular emphasis on how innovation can be leveraged to provide solutions to complex problems and issues, including global crises in environmental sustainability, education, and economic development. Articles emphasize empirical studies, underscoring a comparative approach, and, to a lesser extent, case studies and theoretical articles. The journal balances practice/application and theory/concepts.
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