Evaluating the Minority Candidate Penalty with a Regression Discontinuity Approach

IF 4.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Ariel White, Paru Shah, E. Juenke, Bernard L. Fraga
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Do parties face an electoral penalty when they nominate candidates of colour? We employ a regression discontinuity design using state legislative election data from 2018, 2019, and 2020 to isolate the effect of nominating a candidate of colour on a party's general election performance. Utilising this approach with real-world data heightens external validity relative to existing racial penalty studies, largely supported by surveys and experiments. We find no evidence that candidates of colour are disadvantaged in state legislative general elections relative to narrowly nominated white candidates from the same party. These findings challenge the leading explanations for the underrepresentation of racial/ethnic minority groups, with implications for candidate selection across the United States.
用回归不连续法评估少数候选人惩罚
政党在提名有色人种候选人时是否会面临选举惩罚?我们利用 2018 年、2019 年和 2020 年的州立法选举数据,采用回归不连续设计,分离出提名有色人种候选人对政党大选表现的影响。与现有的种族惩罚研究相比,利用真实世界数据的这一方法提高了外部有效性,这些研究在很大程度上得到了调查和实验的支持。我们没有发现任何证据表明,在州议会大选中,有色人种候选人相对于同一党派中提名较少的白人候选人处于劣势。这些发现对少数种族/族裔群体代表性不足的主要解释提出了质疑,并对美国的候选人选择产生了影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
4.00%
发文量
64
期刊介绍: The British Journal of Political Science is a broadly based journal aiming to cover developments across a wide range of countries and specialisms. Contributions are drawn from all fields of political science (including political theory, political behaviour, public policy and international relations), and articles from scholars in related disciplines (sociology, social psychology, economics and philosophy) appear frequently. With a reputation established over nearly 40 years of publication, the British Journal of Political Science is widely recognised as one of the premier journals in its field.
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