A Multilevel Spatial Model to Investigate Voting Behaviour in the 2019 UK General Election

IF 2 4区社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI:10.1007/s12061-023-09563-6

Kevin Horan, Chris Brunsdon, Katarina Domijan

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Abstract

This paper presents a modelling framework which can detect the simultaneous presence of two different types of spatial process. The first is the variation from a global mean resulting from a geographical unit’s ‘vertical’ position within a nested hierarchical structure such as the county and region where it is situated. The second is the variation at the smaller scale of individual units due to the ‘horizontal’ influence of nearby locations. The former is captured using a multi-level modelling structure while the latter is accounted for by an autoregressive component at the lowest level of the hierarchy. Such a model not only estimates spatially-varying parameters according to geographical scale, but also the relative contribution of each process to the overall spatial variation. As a demonstration, the study considers the association of a selection of socio-economic attributes with voting behaviour in the 2019 UK general election. It finds evidence of the presence of both types of spatial effects, and describes how they suggest different associations between census profile and voting behaviour in different parts of England and Wales.

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调查 2019 年英国大选投票行为的多层次空间模型

本文提出了一个建模框架，可以同时检测两种不同类型的空间过程。第一种是地理单元在嵌套的等级结构（如所在的县和地区）中的 "垂直 "位置导致的与全球平均值的差异。第二种是由于邻近地点的 "横向 "影响而造成的单个单位较小范围内的变化。前者通过多层次建模结构来捕捉，后者则通过层次结构最底层的自回归成分来解释。这种模型不仅能根据地理尺度估算空间变化参数，还能估算每个过程对整体空间变化的相对贡献。作为示范，研究考虑了部分社会经济属性与 2019 年英国大选投票行为的关联。研究发现了存在这两种空间效应的证据，并描述了它们如何在英格兰和威尔士的不同地区表明人口普查概况与投票行为之间存在不同的关联。

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来源期刊

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Description The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace. RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management. FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist. Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.