Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world

IF 29.6 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI:10.1038/s41558-023-01908-w

Xinyue Li, Qiang Wang, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay Koldunov, Caili Liu, Vasco Müller, Dmitry Sidorenko, Thomas Jung

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Abstract

Ocean eddies play a critical role in climate and marine life. In the rapidly warming Arctic, little is known about how ocean eddy activity will change because existing climate models cannot resolve Arctic Ocean mesoscale eddies. Here, by employing a next-generation global sea ice–ocean model with kilometre-scale horizontal resolution in the Arctic, we find a surge of eddy kinetic energy in the upper Arctic Ocean, tripling on average in a four-degree-warmer world. The driving mechanism behind this surge is an increase in eddy generation due to enhanced baroclinic instability. Despite the decline of sea ice, eddy killing (a process in which eddies are dampened by sea ice and winds) will not weaken in its annual mean effect in the considered warming scenario. Our study suggests the importance of adequately representing Arctic eddy activity in climate models for understanding the impacts of its increase on climate and ecosystems. Ocean eddies impact circulation, heat and gas fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. Modelling how warming will alter their occurrence in the Arctic shows that sea ice decline and increased baroclinic instability drive an increase in eddy kinetic energy.

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北冰洋涡流活动预计将在气候变暖的世界中激增

海洋漩涡对气候和海洋生物起着至关重要的作用。在迅速变暖的北极地区，由于现有气候模型无法解析北冰洋中尺度漩涡，人们对海洋漩涡活动将如何变化知之甚少。在这里，通过使用具有北冰洋千米级水平分辨率的下一代全球海冰-海洋模型，我们发现北冰洋上层漩涡动能激增，在气温升高四度的情况下平均增加三倍。这种激增背后的驱动机制是气压不稳定性增强导致涡旋生成增加。尽管海冰减少，但在考虑的气候变暖情景下，涡流杀灭（涡流被海冰和风抑制的过程）的年均效应不会减弱。我们的研究表明，在气候模式中充分反映北极涡旋活动对于理解其增加对气候和生态系统的影响非常重要。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.