Spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural drought and its attribution under different climate zones and vegetation types in the Yellow River Basin of China

Abstract

Ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) are major national strategies in China. Agricultural drought (AD) is one of the most important stress factors of the ecological security of the YRB. Currently, there is a lack of exploration of the spatiotemporal evolution of AD in the YRB under different climatic zones and vegetation types, and the mechanisms by the driving factors influence AD remain unclear. The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) for the YRB in China during 2000–2020 was calculated using Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of AD from the perspective of upstream of the YRB (UYRB), midstream of the YRB (MYRB), and downstream of the YRB (DYRB), as well as different climate zones and vegetation types. The driving factors were selected based on the Pearson correlation analysis, Geographical detector, and Mantel test. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the driving factors on AD in the YRB. We found a slowing trend of AD in the YRB, mainly in the Loess Plateau, which is distributed in UYRB and MYRB, but an increasing trend for AD in DYRB. Temperature, which is the most direct influential factor, has exacerbated AD in UYRB and MYRB. However, surface solar radiation (SSR) has the greatest constraining effect on DYRB. AD increased in arid and desert zones, while a decreasing trend is observed for other climatic zones and vegetation types. In arid and semiarid zones, human activities and SSR were the largest indirect factors exacerbating AD. In humid and subhumid zones, the largest indirect factor exacerbating AD was potential evapotranspiration (PET). Temperature is the most direct factor exacerbating AD in cropland and forest, while PET is the largest indirect factor exacerbating AD in grassland. This study elucidates the driving factors and mechanisms of AD in the YRB to provide scientific decision support for mitigating regional drought and promoting regional sustainable development.