Ecologically informed priors improve Bayesian model estimates of species richness and occupancy for undetected species

Abstract

Detection error can bias observations of ecological processes, especially when some species are never detected during sampling. In many communities, the probable identity of these missing species is known from previous research and natural history collections, but this information is rarely incorporated into subsequent models. Here, I present prior aggregation as a method for including information from external sources in Bayesian hierarchical detection models. Prior aggregation combines information from multiple prior distributions, in this case, an ecologically informative, species-level prior, and an uninformative community-level prior. This approach incorporates external information into the model without sacrificing the advantages of modeling species in the context of the community. Using simulated data supplied to a multispecies occupancy model, I demonstrated that prior aggregation improves estimates of (1) metacommunity richness and (2) environmental covariates were associated with species-specific occupancy probabilities. When applied to a dataset of small mammals in Vermont, prior aggregation allowed the model to estimate occupancy correlates of the Eastern cottontail Sylvilagus floridanus, a species observed at several sites in the region but never captured. Prior aggregation can be used to improve the analysis of several important metrics in population and community ecology, including abundance, survivorship, and diversity.