Seasonal reversal of ENSO impacts on SST in the East China Sea-Kuroshio region

Abstract

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the East China Sea-Kuroshio (EK) region has important implications for the surrounding weather, climate, and marine ecology. The year-to-year variations of the EK SST are expectedly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the predominant predictability source of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability. Surprisingly, no significant SST signal is observed in the EK region when focusing on the ENSO autumn-winter season with the persistent and pronounced SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. We find that a remarkable seasonal reversal appears in the ENSO-EK SST connection, shifting from a negative relationship in autumn (Aug(0)-Oct(0)) to a positive relationship in winter (Dec(0)-Feb(1)). This reversal is mainly attributed to the seasonally varying ENSO-associated Western North Pacific (WNP) atmospheric circulation patterns. During ENSO autumns, the anomalous WNP anticyclone is confined south of 20°N, which is accompanied with cyclonic circulation anomalies in the EK region. The associated anomalous northerly wind tends to enhance the background northerly wind, thereby facilitating the local SST cooling mainly via the wind-evaporation-SST effect. In the subsequent winter, the ENSO-related WNP anticyclonic anomalies intensify and extend toward the EK region. Consequently, the weakened background northerly wind induced by southerly wind anomalies, leads to the increase of downward latent and sensible heat flux in the EK region, fostering the local SST warming. The observed seasonal reversal of ENSO impacts can be evidenced by the tropical Pacific pacemaker experiments, emphasizing the importance of seasonally modulated ENSO teleconnection and holding implications for the local SST climate prediction.