The Importance of Uncertainty in Health Scenarios: A Scoping Review on COVID-19 Scenarios

Abstract

Background: Scenarios are the most efficient methods to explore our uncertainty about the future. Even with increasing utilization, the majority of scenarios still fall short of meeting the future “uncertainties” in health. This article examines one of the most sensitive encounters of the health system with uncertainties—COVID-19 pandemic—and the type of uncertainty analysis in health scenarios to discuss the importance and determine the existing gaps while providing a better mechanism for scenario planning in the health system. Methods: To examine the extent, range, and nature of scenario research, a preliminary mapping of the existing literature, summarizing research findings, and identifying research gaps, we have taken help from the Arksey and O'Malley (2005) model and to improve the quality of the results, we have also used the PRISMA framework. To identify the studies relevant to the issue, the PubMed and Embase databases were searched for peer-reviewed published articles. All peer reviewed articles from January 01, 2020, to December 31, 2020, were included in this review. The search strategy was mainly the systematic use of English keywords such as “coronavirus,” “covid-19,” “SARS-CoV-2,” “2019-ncov,” and scenario. To improve the search sensitivity, subject searching based on MeSh and Emtree keywords was used. Results: It is crucial to identify the health domains where the scenarios can be used. The major ideas that were covered and their variations would also be identified using these different scenarios. Based on the selected articles, we can answer some critical questions. First, in which health fields is the scenario method used? Second, what are the key concepts in these studies, and third, what is the difference between them? Policy, epidemiology, and economics use futures studies scenarios more than other social science disciplines in health. Furthermore, we have looked at the fact that selecting the appropriate kind, utilizing new methodologies, and emphasizing uncertainty analysis are the core difficulties associated with health case scenarios. Conclusion: Based on examining the existing indicators in the health scenarios, establishing the “uncertainty analysis” as the basis can improve scenario planning in this field. Also, if scenario planning is done as a process based on uncertainty analysis, it is more accurate and helps make better decisions in the field of health.