A New Exchange Market Pressure Index with a Capital-flow Management Measure and Its Applications in Four Asian Countries

Abstract

Purpose - An exchange market pressure index (EMP) exhibits not only exchange-rate fluctuations but also the changes of government tools to manage exchange rates. Therefore, it is useful to estimate hidden pressures that exist in foreign exchange markets. This study suggests a new EMP that might have more information on foreign exchange markets than other indices. Design/Methodology/Approach - We include a capital-flow management (CFM) measure as another component in our new EMP to consider the role of CFMs for managing exchange rates. This new index is then applied to the four Asian countries of South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Japan to analyze their foreign exchange markets. Findings - We found that the new EMP sends stronger signals before and during the currency crises than existing indices. Moreover, the volatility of emerging market EMP is stronger than that of advanced countries because the former group changes CFM policies more frequently than the latter . These findings suggest that the new EMP might describe exchange rates and pressures in foreign exchange markets better than other indices. Research Implications - To our best knowledge, this study is one of few attempts to incorporate CFM measures into an EMP to consider the effectiveness of CFMs in managing exchange rates.