EARLY MARRIAGE MODELING IN WEST JAVA USING GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION

Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.20473/jbk.v12i2.2023.155-164

Marnita Simatupang

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Abstract

Woman early marriage defined as a marriage that happens to a woman under 16 years. Early marriage can affect the mother’s and baby’s health. Free sex, education, and poverty remain the three significant factors of early marriage. West Java Province is the third-highest province with cases of early marriage with 19.23% of cases in Indonesia in the year of 2020. The cases number of cases of early marriage in an area certainly has different characteristics. The proximity factor between regions can influence it. This study aims to model instances of early marriage in West Java Province by considering spatial aspects using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. The existence of spatial dependence and heterogeneity is proven by Moran’s Index and Breusch-Pagan value less than alpha (0.05). The results of GWR modeling using Gaussian Kernel Weights show that the Percentage of Woman Who Got Pregnant before 16 Years Old (X1), Average Years of Schooling for Woman (X2), and Percentage of Poor People (X3), have significant impact of the percentage of early marriage in West Java. The Percentage of Woman Who Got Pregnant before 16 Years Old (X1) variable and the Percentage of Poor People variable (X3) have a positively affects the percentage of early marriage in West Java Province in 2020. At the same time, Average Years of Schooling for Woman (X2) has a negative effect. Based on calculations, the best model in modeling early marriage in West Java Province is the GWR model, with an adjusted R2 value of 93.18%.

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利用地理加权回归法建立西爪哇早婚模型

早婚是指 16 岁以下女性的婚姻。早婚会影响母亲和婴儿的健康。自由性生活、教育和贫困仍然是导致早婚的三个重要因素。西爪哇省是早婚案例第三高的省份，2020 年占印度尼西亚早婚案例的 19.23%。一个地区的早婚案例数量肯定会有不同的特点。地区之间的邻近因素也会对其产生影响。本研究旨在使用地理加权回归（GWR）方法，通过考虑空间因素来模拟西爪哇省的早婚案例。莫兰指数（Moran's Index）和 Breusch-Pagan 值小于α（0.05）证明了空间依赖性和异质性的存在。使用高斯核权重建立 GWR 模型的结果显示，16 岁前怀孕的妇女百分比（X1）、妇女平均受教育年限（X2）和贫困人口百分比（X3）对西爪哇早婚百分比有显著影响。 16 岁前怀孕的妇女比例变量（X1）和贫困人口比例变量（X3）对 2020 年西爪哇省的早婚比例有积极影响。同时，妇女的平均受教育年限（X2）会产生负面影响。根据计算结果，西爪哇省早婚建模的最佳模型是 GWR 模型，调整后的 R2 值为 93.18%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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