On the definition of an actuarial climate index for the Iberian peninsula

Nan Zhou, José L. Vilar-Zanón, José Garrido, Antonio-José Heras Martínez
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Abstract

Climate change is defined as a long-term shift in climate patterns affecting the planet globally. The main consequences of climate change are a rise in average temperatures in many regions, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, storms, or hurricanes. Climate change is associated also with a rise in sea levels, more frequent and severe wildfires, a loss of biodiversity, and many other disruptions with serious economic impacts. These new risks are increasingly affecting both the frequency and severity of claims in different insurance branches. To help insurance companies predict and manage these new risks, actuaries have defined the Actuaries Climate Index™ (ACI), which combines information from several important weather variables from historical records of the United States and Canada. The ACI shows a significant increasing trend over the years. It is important to note, however, that the impact of climate change is not the same in all parts of the planet: different regions and countries are affected in different ways. Therefore, it is important to check if the ACI is as useful to assess climate risk outside the United States and Canada. In this paper, we follow the North American ACI methodology in order to build an actuarial climate index for the Iberian Peninsula, which we call Iberian Actuarial Climate Index (IACI). The paper reviews in detail the methodology and the data used to obtain the IACI, and with it, studies the impact of climate change in the Iberian Peninsula.
关于伊比利亚半岛精算气候指数的定义
气候变化是指影响全球的气候模式的长期变化。气候变化的主要后果是许多地区的平均气温上升,洪水、干旱、风暴或飓风等极端天气事件的频率和强度增加。气候变化还与海平面上升、野火更加频繁和严重、生物多样性丧失以及其他许多对经济造成严重影响的干扰有关。这些新风险正日益影响着不同保险分支机构的理赔频率和严重程度。为了帮助保险公司预测和管理这些新风险,精算师定义了精算师气候指数(ACI),该指数综合了美国和加拿大历史记录中几个重要天气变量的信息。ACI 多年来一直呈显著上升趋势。但必须注意的是,气候变化对地球上所有地区的影响并不相同:不同地区和国家受到的影响也不同。因此,有必要检查一下 ACI 对于评估美国和加拿大以外的气候风险是否同样有用。在本文中,我们遵循北美 ACI 方法,为伊比利亚半岛建立了一个精算气候指数,我们称之为伊比利亚精算气候指数(IACI)。本文详细回顾了获得 IACI 所使用的方法和数据,并以此研究了气候变化对伊比利亚半岛的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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