Between Stale Stability and Dynamic Contestation

Abstract

This article uses national survey data, quantitative party system indicators, as well as manifesto data to assess the proposition whether the Croatian party system is indeed one of the most stable systems among post-communist EU member states. The analysis spans three decades and focuses on changes after EU accession and confirms long-term stability of the Croatian party system. However, after the 2015 election, there was a decline in the popularity of the two major parties – Christian Democrats (hdz) and Social Democrats (sdp), and an emergence of several challenger parties – the center-right populist Bridge, which favors institutional reform and decentralization, the Eurosceptic, populist, and nationalist Homeland Movement, and We Can!, a green-left coalition of academics and environmentalists. In addition, the observed party system change was accompanied by a rise in civic referendum initiatives around bioethical issues such as sex education and same-sex marriage.