Predicting future gully development in south-east Nigeria: A 10- Year Forecast (2020-2030)

Abstract

This study investigates the trajectory of gully erosion in South-East Nigeria over the past decade (2010-2020) and employs an artificial neural network model to predict future gully development for the next ten years (2020-2030). The analysis reveals a substantial increase in gully areas across the states of Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, and Imo from 2010 to 2020, indicating a pressing environmental concern. The predictive model, validated at 79.24% correctness, anticipates a significant expansion of gully coverage by 2030. The implications of these predictions highlight the need for proactive measures to counteract the adverse effects of gully erosion on the environment, infrastructure, and communities. This study provides valuable insights for regional planning, resource allocation, and policy formulation, emphasizing the urgency of collaborative efforts to address the escalating threat of gully erosion in South-East Nigeria.