An assessment of model capability on rapid intensification prediction of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101431

Yanyan Huang, Yanxia Zhang, Chengzhong Zhang, Bin Zheng, Guangfeng Dai, Mengjie Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The absence of robust quantitative evaluation methods has led to insufficient knowledge of models capability on the rapid intensification (RI) prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, we propose a method and define some indicators aiming to evaluate model capability on predicting RI in a more accurate manner. An assessment of model predictive capability on RI of TCs based on 10 years of operational forecasts has been conducted using different RI criteria. The Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea of China Meteorological Administration (CMA-TRAMS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high resolution (HRES) operational forecasts were used. Analysis results revealed that the criterion of 6-hour sea level pressure (SLP) change is more appropriate to be used in RI operational forecast. The maximum lead time (MLT) of CMA-TRAMS and HRES was 72 and 78 h, and the maximum deviation of RI occurrence time of CMA-TRAMS and HRES was 48 h delay and 24 h ahead, respectively. Overall results suggest that the model predictive capability of RI is currently limited, and both models have inadequate capability in providing sufficient heat and energy to support RI in the long run. A tendency of CMA-TRAMS to have a lag in RI occurrence time was also demonstrated due to an air-sea interaction lag resulting from the fixed skin sea surface temperature used. Results of the present study provide insights and could be the basis for future efforts on improving parametrization schemes for properly describing RI process of TCs.

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南海热带气旋快速增强预报模式能力评估

由于缺乏可靠的定量评估方法，人们对模式预测热带气旋（TC）快速增强（RI）的能力认识不足。在本研究中，我们提出了一种方法并定义了一些指标，旨在更准确地评估模式预测 RI 的能力。根据 10 年的业务预报，采用不同的 RI 标准对模式预测热带气旋 RI 的能力进行了评估。采用了南海热带区域大气模式（TRAMS）和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的高分辨率（HRES）业务预报。分析结果表明，6 小时海平面气压（SLP）变化标准更适合用于 RI 业务预报。TRAMS和HRES的最大提前时间（MLT）分别为72小时和78小时，而TRAMS和HRES的RI发生时间最大偏差分别为延迟48小时和提前24小时。总体结果表明，目前模型对 RI 的预测能力有限，两个模型都没有足够的能力提供足够的热量和能量来长期支持 RI。TRAMS 的 RI 发生时间有滞后的趋势，这也是由于使用了固定的表层海温，导致海气相互作用滞后。本研究的结果为今后改进参数化方案以正确描述热带气旋的 RI 过程提供了启示和依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans is an international journal for research related to the dynamical and physical processes governing atmospheres, oceans and climate. Authors are invited to submit articles, short contributions or scholarly reviews in the following areas: •Dynamic meteorology •Physical oceanography •Geophysical fluid dynamics •Climate variability and climate change •Atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-cryosphere interactions •Prediction and predictability •Scale interactions Papers of theoretical, computational, experimental and observational investigations are invited, particularly those that explore the fundamental nature - or bring together the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary aspects - of dynamical and physical processes at all scales. Papers that explore air-sea interactions and the coupling between atmospheres, oceans, and other components of the climate system are particularly welcome.