Application of GIS and spatiotemporal analyses in viral infection modelling using multiple datasets – A case study on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

Abstract

Introduction/objective

Viral and infectious diseases such as COVID-19 continue to pose a significant public health threat. In order to create an early warning system for new pandemics or emerging versions of the virus, it is imperative to study its epidemiology. In this study, we created a geospatial model to predict the weekly contagion and lethality rates of COVID-19 in Ireland.

Methods

More than forty parameters including atmospheric pollutants, metrological variables, sociodemographic factors, and lockdown phases were introduced as input variables to the model. The significant parameters in predicting the number of new cases and the death toll were identified. QGIS software was employed to process input data, and a principal component regression (PCR) model was developed using the statistical add-on XLSTAT.

Results and conclusions

The developed models were able to predict more than half of the variations in contagion and lethality rates. This indicates that the proposed model can serve to help prediction systems for the identification of future high-risk conditions. Nevertheless, there are additional parameters that could be included in future models, such as the number of deaths in care homes, the percentage of contagion and mortality among health workers, and the degree of compliance with social distancing.