Important factors affecting transportation for shippers and potential demand for the Northeast Passage: A conjoint analysis of Japan

IF 1.5 4区地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY

Polar Science Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.polar.2023.101043

Shinichi Yamaguchi , Kei Komuro , Shinnosuke Tanabe , Hajime Yamaguchi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study utilized choice-based conjoint analysis, along with conditional logit to identify the following three research questions: RQ1: Which factor of the route is important for sippers in marine transport? RQ2: What is the potential demand for the NEP? How does the shipping cost alter the demand? RQ3: Which industry exhibits a high potential demand for the NEP? According to the results, Shipping Time, Percent Delay, Container Temperature, and Shipping Cost impact route selection by shippers. The following order was determined in terms of importance: Cost > Delay > Time > Temperature. The following values were found for the marginal willingness to pay: USD 31.7/FEU for one-day reduction, USD 35.2/FEU for 1% reduction in the delay rate of 1–3 days, and USD 456.0/FEU for a decrease in temperature inside the container from 15 to 45 °C to 5–20 °C. Furthermore, the potential probability of the selection of NEP is 39.4% if the cost is equal. When the cost increases from USD 2585/FEU to USD 2100–2150/FEU, the share becomes equal to the SCR. The Agriculture and Fisheries industry exhibited the highest potential demand, while the Chemical industry exhibited the least demand. These results led to three policy implications. It should be noted, however, that the accuracy of the analysis remains debatable because it is not random sampling.

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影响托运人运输的重要因素和东北航道的潜在需求：对日本的联合分析

本研究利用基于选择的联合分析和条件 logit 来确定以下三个研究问题：问题 1：在海运中，航线的哪个因素对乘客来说很重要？问题 2：对国家环保政策的潜在需求是什么？航运成本如何改变需求？问题 3：哪个行业对非环保型产品的潜在需求大？结果表明，航运时间、延误百分比、集装箱温度和航运成本会影响托运人的航线选择。重要性排序如下：成本> 延误> 时间> 温度。边际支付意愿值如下：减少一天的费用为 31.7 美元/外币，减少 1-3 天延误率 1%的费用为 35.2 美元/外币，集装箱内温度从 15-45 °C 降至 5-20 °C 的费用为 456.0 美元/外币。此外，如果成本相同，选择 NEP 的潜在概率为 39.4%。当成本从 2585 美元/FEU 增加到 2100-2150 美元/FEU 时，其份额与 SCR 相等。农业和渔业的潜在需求最大，而化工行业的需求最小。这些结果产生了三个政策影响。但需要注意的是，由于不是随机抽样，分析的准确性仍有待商榷。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Polar Science ECOLOGY-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Polar Science is an international, peer-reviewed quarterly journal. It is dedicated to publishing original research articles for sciences relating to the polar regions of the Earth and other planets. Polar Science aims to cover 15 disciplines which are listed below; they cover most aspects of physical sciences, geosciences and life sciences, together with engineering and social sciences. Articles should attract the interest of broad polar science communities, and not be limited to the interests of those who work under specific research subjects. Polar Science also has an Open Archive whereby published articles are made freely available from ScienceDirect after an embargo period of 24 months from the date of publication. - Space and upper atmosphere physics - Atmospheric science/climatology - Glaciology - Oceanography/sea ice studies - Geology/petrology - Solid earth geophysics/seismology - Marine Earth science - Geomorphology/Cenozoic-Quaternary geology - Meteoritics - Terrestrial biology - Marine biology - Animal ecology - Environment - Polar Engineering - Humanities and social sciences.