Forward-Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

IF 3.7 2区 地球科学
Space Weather Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI:10.1029/2023sw003678
Dabin Xue, Jian Yang, Zhizhao Liu, Wei Cong
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Abstract

Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregularities in the ionosphere. Consequently, ground navigation has to be used to replace satellite navigation, increasing aircraft separation standards and reducing airspace capacity. As a result, numerous flights may be delayed or even canceled, incurring significant financial losses. The occurrence peak of space weather events generally coincides with the 11-year-cycle solar maximum, and 2025 is expected to be the upcoming solar maximum. The Greater Bay Area (GBA), located in the equatorial ionization anomaly region of China, is particularly vulnerable to space weather impacts. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, we conduct this looking-forward study and propose solution methods from the standpoint of Air Traffic Management, by simulating satellite navigation failure scenarios. Based on the projected flight volume in 2025 related to the GBA airports, simulation results show that the economic costs can be tens of millions of Euros, which is dependent on the duration of satellite navigation failure and the time interval of ground navigation-based landing. We believe that this study can be a benchmark for evaluating the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather on flight operations.
2025 年太阳活动最大影响的前瞻性研究:卫星导航故障对中国粤港澳大湾区航空网络运行的影响
基于全球导航卫星系统的卫星导航可为飞机提供更精确的制导,并提高飞行效率。然而,由于电子总含量急剧增加和电离层的不规则性,恶劣的空间天气事件会导致卫星导航失效。因此,必须使用地面导航来取代卫星导航,从而提高了飞机的间隔标准,降低了空域容量。因此,许多航班可能会延误甚至取消,造成重大经济损失。空间天气事件的发生高峰一般与 11 年周期的太阳最大值相吻合,预计 2025 年将是即将到来的太阳最大值。粤港澳大湾区位于中国赤道电离异常区,特别容易受到空间天气的影响。为探讨卫星导航失效对航班运行的影响,我们从空中交通管理的角度出发,通过模拟卫星导航失效场景,进行前瞻性研究并提出解决方法。模拟结果表明,基于 2025 年全球基地航班量的预测,经济损失可达数千万欧元,这取决于卫星导航故障的持续时间和基于地面导航的着陆时间间隔。我们相信,这项研究可以作为评估即将到来的空间天气对航班运行的潜在经济影响的基准。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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29.70%
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166
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