Probabilistic analysis of seasonal influence on the prediction of pile bearing capacity by CPT: A case study

IF 3 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL

Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.probengmech.2023.103578

Isabela Augusto Silveira , Heraldo Luiz Giacheti , Breno Padovezi Rocha , Caio Gorla Nogueira

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, we used a probabilistic approach to evaluate the probability of failure of small diameter bored piles in unsaturated sandy soils. The prediction of the bearing capacity was based on the Cone Penetration Test (CPT). We assessed the seasonal influence by analyzing CPT data from dry and wet seasons. The LCPC and Aoki-Velloso semiempirical methods were deterministically applied, and the Aoki-Velloso method was examined using reliability theory. The first-order reliability method (FORM) was used to evaluate the probability of failure and calculate the reliability index based on random variables obtained from CPT data considering the effect of season when predicting bearing capacity. A total of 8.0 m long bored piles with diameters of 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35 m were used for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. We also evaluated the influence of load ratio variation on the reliability index and determined the pile length required to reach a target reliability index value. Reliability analyses considering CPT campaigns conducted in different seasons showed the effect of season on the prediction of bearing capacity. For example, an 8.0 m long pile with a 0.30 m diameter and 100 kN vertical load had a probability of failure of 38.7 % in the wet season and 0.01 % in the dry season. The reliability analyses provided insights into the influence of seasonal variability on in situ tests for pile bearing capacity, affecting the design of foundation elements.

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季节对 CPT 桩承载力预测影响的概率分析：案例研究

在这项研究中，我们采用概率方法来评估非饱和砂土中小口径钻孔灌注桩的破坏概率。承载力的预测基于锥入度试验（CPT）。我们通过分析旱季和雨季的 CPT 数据来评估季节影响。确定性地应用了 LCPC 和 Aoki-Velloso 半经验方法，并使用可靠性理论对 Aoki-Velloso 方法进行了检验。在预测承载力时，考虑到季节的影响，采用了一阶可靠度法（FORM）来评估破坏概率，并根据 CPT 数据获得的随机变量计算可靠度指数。确定性分析和概率分析均采用了直径分别为 0.25 米、0.30 米和 0.35 米的 8.0 米长钻孔灌注桩。我们还评估了荷载比变化对可靠性指数的影响，并确定了达到目标可靠性指数值所需的桩长。根据不同季节进行的 CPT 活动进行的可靠性分析表明了季节对承载力预测的影响。例如，一根长 8.0 米、直径 0.30 米、垂直荷载 100 kN 的桩在雨季的破坏概率为 38.7%，在旱季为 0.01%。可靠性分析有助于深入了解季节变化对现场桩承载力测试的影响，从而影响地基基础构件的设计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 工程技术-工程：机械

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

15.40%

发文量

审稿时长

13.5 months

期刊介绍： This journal provides a forum for scholarly work dealing primarily with probabilistic and statistical approaches to contemporary solid/structural and fluid mechanics problems encountered in diverse technical disciplines such as aerospace, civil, marine, mechanical, and nuclear engineering. The journal aims to maintain a healthy balance between general solution techniques and problem-specific results, encouraging a fruitful exchange of ideas among disparate engineering specialities.