Investigating Investment Plans for Expanding Battery and Electric Vehicle Production in Europe

Abstract

There has been significant EV sales growth in Europe, benefiting from its policies for promoting electric vehicles (EVs) and investments in manufacturing. This study investigates the investment announcements for EV and battery production announced by manufacturers and compares them to four scenarios with different EV penetration levels in Europe. This study projects the required capacities and estimates the investment needs to meet different EV sale targets in each scenario. The investigations show that, for Europe to achieve 60% new EV sales by 2030 and to be on track for 100% by 2035, its 4.8 million planned production capacity of EVs would fall short of the needed 9.2 million in 2030. The gap could close to 2.0 million when tentative announcements are counted. The results for batteries indicate that tentative plans are adequate and firm plans can satisfy most scenarios by 2030. More investments into EV production, along with policy support and incentives, are needed for more rapid scenarios.