Deciphering past earthquakes from the probabilistic modeling of paleoseismic records – the Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies code (PEACH, version 1)

IF 4 3区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscientific Model Development Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023

O. Gómez-Novell, B. Pace, F. Visini, J. F. Faure Walker, Oona Scotti

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract. A key challenge in paleoseismology is constraining the timing and occurrence of past earthquakes to create an earthquake history along faults that can be used for testing or building fault-based seismic hazard assessments. We present a new methodological approach and accompanying code (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to meet this challenge. By using the integration of multi-site paleoseismic records through probabilistic modeling of the event times and an unconditioned correlation, PEACH improves the objectivity of constraining paleoearthquake chronologies along faults, including highly populated records and poorly dated events. Our approach reduces uncertainties in event times and allows increased resolution of the trench records. By extension, the approach can potentially reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of parameters for seismic hazard assessment such as earthquake recurrence times and coefficient of variation. We test and discuss this methodology in two well-studied cases: the Paganica Fault in Italy and the Wasatch Fault in the United States.

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通过古地震记录的概率建模解密过去的地震--古地震学地震序列代码（PEACH，第 1 版）

摘要古地震学的一个关键挑战是制约过去地震的发生时间和发生率，以创建沿断层的地震历史，用于测试或建立基于断层的地震灾害评估。为应对这一挑战，我们提出了一种新的方法论和配套代码（古地震学地震史，PEACH）。PEACH 通过对事件发生时间的概率建模和无条件相关性来整合多地点古地震记录，从而提高了沿断层古地震年代学约束的客观性，包括人口高度密集的记录和年代较差的事件。我们的方法减少了事件时间的不确定性，提高了沟槽记录的分辨率。推而广之，这种方法有可能减少地震灾害评估参数估计的不确定性，如地震复发时间和变异系数。我们在意大利帕加尼卡断层和美国瓦萨奇断层这两个经过充分研究的案例中测试并讨论了这一方法。

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来源期刊

Geoscientific Model Development GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

9.80%

发文量

352

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) is an international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of the description, development, and evaluation of numerical models of the Earth system and its components. The following manuscript types can be considered for peer-reviewed publication: * geoscientific model descriptions, from statistical models to box models to GCMs; * development and technical papers, describing developments such as new parameterizations or technical aspects of running models such as the reproducibility of results; * new methods for assessment of models, including work on developing new metrics for assessing model performance and novel ways of comparing model results with observational data; * papers describing new standard experiments for assessing model performance or novel ways of comparing model results with observational data; * model experiment descriptions, including experimental details and project protocols; * full evaluations of previously published models.