Mark loss can strongly bias estimates of demographic rates in multi-state models: a case study with simulated and empirical datasets

Abstract

1. The development of methods for individual identification in wild species and the refinement of Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) models over the past few decades have greatly improved the assessment of population demographic rates to address ecological and conservation questions. In particular, multi-state models, which offer flexibility in analysing complex study systems, have gained popularity within the ecological community. In this study, we focus on the issue of mark loss and the associated recycling of remarked individuals, which requires further exploration given the increasing use of these models. 2. To fill this knowledge gap, we employed a wide range of simulation scenarios that reflect commonly encountered real case studies, drawing inspiration from the