Modeling global solar radiation using ambient temperature

Abstract

Accurate information about solar radiation is regarded as the most important stage in determining the availability of solar energy. As well, it is considered the principal input for various applications of solar energy. Because solar radiation measurements are unavailable at many locations throughout the world, many solar radiation models have been developed to predict global solar radiation. In this regard, this study objects to develop accurate and quick Global Solar Radiation (GSR) models for new locations, which currently lack an accurate model. Additionally, assess the performance of a recently introduced model, one of the best temperature-based models for GSR estimation, in these five new sites. Moreover, the proposed model's generalization capacity is investigated over the whole zone, the Suez Canal Zone, and a comparative analysis of its performance is presented. Models’ estimation is compared to the observed values, and the most common performance indicators are obtained to assess models’ performance. The findings indicate that the developed models in this study can predict global solar radiation accurately. Where the Models’ performance, both the local and general models, are larger than 95 % at all sites except for the local one at Port Said City (coastal site), it is 91 %. Additionally, the developed models have good RMSE and MABE values which range from 0.8 to 1.8 (MJ/m² day⁻¹) and 0.7 to 1.7 (MJ/m² day⁻¹), successively. Besides, they have excellent performance with coefficient of determination (R²) values ranging from 0.95 to 0.98, whereas prior research's ranges are 0.884–0.895 for R² and 2.69–3.367 (MJ/m² day⁻¹) for RMSE. Therefore, the developed models in this study can be utilized for accurate GSR forecast, with their high applicability which may be achieved by combining them with various long- or short-term weather forecasting approaches, that are mostly used to reliably anticipate weather temperature. As well, these models' precise and speedy computation of GSR can also be employed in the design and performance evaluation of various solar applications.