Robust projections of increasing land carbon storage in boreal and temperate forests under future climate change scenarios

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in climate change mitigation by offsetting approximately 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions annually. However, whether and where the terrestrial ecosystem could continue to function as robust carbon sinks under future climate scenarios remain unclear. In this study, using a robustness metric with state-of-the-art Earth system models, we detected robust projections of increasing land carbon storage under three climate change scenarios, primarily in boreal and temperate forests. The projected land carbon change remained uncertain over approximately 60% of the land surface, with productivity-driven effects emerging as the primary source of uncertainty in over 50% of these uncertain regions. Overall, our study pinpoints specific biomes with the potential to persist as carbon sinks under future climate change scenarios while also underscoring the widespread uncertainty of the projected land carbon change in current Earth system models.