{"title":"Climate Volatility, Wheat Productivity and Food Security: A Quantile Regression Analysis","authors":"Babar Hussain, Usman Ali, S. Shaheen, L. Almas","doi":"10.37394/232015.2023.19.109","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change's effects on food crop production are a serious concern due to its linkages with food insecurity. This study attempts to investigate the question of whether and to what extend climate volatility has affected the yield of a major staple crop, the wheat, in the District Faisalabad, the largest agricultural city in Pakistan. Daily base data of temperature and rainfall over the past 33 years is collected, and the average and volatility measures of climate conditions are calculated for the whole crop period as well as for the vegetative and reproductive stages of crop growth. The quantile regression technique is utilized to estimate the influence of climate volatility on wheat yield distribution. The results provide convincing evidence that climate volatility is more damaging to food crops as compared to the gradual changes in rainfall and temperature. Besides, climate volatility is found to have significant effects on both the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. This research unravels the heterogeneous impact of temperature and rainfall across the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. It is hoped that the findings are important to guide policymakers to cope with uncertain climate shocks.","PeriodicalId":53713,"journal":{"name":"WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development","volume":"61 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.37394/232015.2023.19.109","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate change's effects on food crop production are a serious concern due to its linkages with food insecurity. This study attempts to investigate the question of whether and to what extend climate volatility has affected the yield of a major staple crop, the wheat, in the District Faisalabad, the largest agricultural city in Pakistan. Daily base data of temperature and rainfall over the past 33 years is collected, and the average and volatility measures of climate conditions are calculated for the whole crop period as well as for the vegetative and reproductive stages of crop growth. The quantile regression technique is utilized to estimate the influence of climate volatility on wheat yield distribution. The results provide convincing evidence that climate volatility is more damaging to food crops as compared to the gradual changes in rainfall and temperature. Besides, climate volatility is found to have significant effects on both the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. This research unravels the heterogeneous impact of temperature and rainfall across the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. It is hoped that the findings are important to guide policymakers to cope with uncertain climate shocks.
期刊介绍:
WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development publishes original research papers relating to the studying of environmental sciences. We aim to bring important work to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of these particular areas. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. It is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with sustainable development, climate change, natural hazards, renewable energy systems and related areas. We also welcome scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.