{"title":"Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis","authors":"Shichao Du, Chin-Han Chan","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09843-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite some recent attempts, how fertility changed during the COVID-19 pandemic has not been adequately investigated. Using monthly live birth data from 1969 to 2021 and an ARIMA time-series approach, this study examines the fertility pattern in the United States during the pandemic. Results show that there was an initial baby bust in December 2020, January 2021, and February 2021, immediately after a full gestation period following the COVID-19 onset in the United States. However, it was soon replaced by a baby boom starting in April 2021. Since then, a fertility rebound occurred in the middle period of the pandemic until the end of our observation of December 2021. From December 2020 to December 2021, around 2% of total live births were estimated to be associated with the COVID-19 baby boom.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Research and Policy Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09843-6","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Despite some recent attempts, how fertility changed during the COVID-19 pandemic has not been adequately investigated. Using monthly live birth data from 1969 to 2021 and an ARIMA time-series approach, this study examines the fertility pattern in the United States during the pandemic. Results show that there was an initial baby bust in December 2020, January 2021, and February 2021, immediately after a full gestation period following the COVID-19 onset in the United States. However, it was soon replaced by a baby boom starting in April 2021. Since then, a fertility rebound occurred in the middle period of the pandemic until the end of our observation of December 2021. From December 2020 to December 2021, around 2% of total live births were estimated to be associated with the COVID-19 baby boom.
期刊介绍：
Now accepted in JSTOR! Population Research and Policy Review has a twofold goal: it provides a convenient source for government officials and scholars in which they can learn about the policy implications of recent research relevant to the causes and consequences of changing population size and composition; and it provides a broad, interdisciplinary coverage of population research.
Population Research and Policy Review seeks to publish quality material of interest to professionals working in the fields of population, and those fields which intersect and overlap with population studies. The publication includes demographic, economic, social, political and health research papers and related contributions which are based on either the direct scientific evaluation of particular policies or programs, or general contributions intended to advance knowledge that informs policy and program development.
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