On the informativeness of unexpected exclusions from street earnings

IF 3.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Brian Bratten, Stephannie Larocque, Teri Yohn
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Exclusions from street earnings can include both expected exclusions, forecasted ex ante by analysts, and unexpected exclusions, revealed after earnings are reported. While prior research largely examines total exclusions from street earnings, unexpected exclusions reflect the news or surprise in exclusions. We investigate the properties and informativeness of unexpected exclusions for future profitability, benchmark beating, analyst forecast errors, and future stock returns. We find that unexpected exclusions represent a mix of transitory and recurring items and are informative about future street earnings. In an analysis of hand-collected analysts' reports, we find that unexpected exclusions are more likely to reflect misestimated recurring items when analysts forecasted exclusions, and unexpected transitory items when analysts did not forecast exclusions. We also examine benchmark-beating behavior, in which street earnings meet street forecasts but GAAP earnings miss GAAP forecasts. We observe that benchmark beating is more likely to occur when analysts forecast exclusions than when they do not. Moreover, we find unexpected exclusions are more persistent when street earnings meet street forecasts but GAAP earnings miss GAAP forecasts. These findings are consistent with recurring earnings amounts being opportunistically shifted to excluded items to meet analysts' street forecasts. Finally, we find some evidence that analysts and investors react to, but do not fully incorporate, the information in unexpected exclusions, based on forecast revisions and stock price reactions.

论街头收益意外排除的信息量
街头收益的排除既包括分析师事前预测的预期排除,也包括收益报告后揭示的意外排除。以往的研究主要研究街头收益的总排除项,而意外排除项则反映排除项中的新闻或惊喜。我们研究了意外排除项对未来盈利能力、基准跳动、分析师预测误差和未来股票回报的属性和信息量。我们发现,意外排除项代表了过渡性和经常性项目的混合,对未来街道盈利具有参考价值。通过对手工收集的分析师报告进行分析,我们发现当分析师预测了排除项时,意外排除项更有可能反映误估的经常性项目,而当分析师没有预测排除项时,意外的过渡性项目更有可能反映误估的经常性项目。我们还研究了超越基准的行为,即街头收益符合街头预测,但公认会计原则收益未达到公认会计原则预测。我们发现,当分析师预测不计费用时,比不预测时更容易出现超越基准的情况。此外,我们还发现,当街头收益符合街头预测,但公认会计原则收益不及公认会计原则预测时,意外排除会更持久。这些发现与经常性盈利金额被伺机转移到排除项目以满足分析师的街头预测是一致的。最后,根据预测修正和股价反应,我们发现一些证据表明,分析师和投资者对意外剔除项目中的信息做出了反应,但并未完全纳入其中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.10%
发文量
97
期刊介绍: Contemporary Accounting Research (CAR) is the premiere research journal of the Canadian Academic Accounting Association, which publishes leading- edge research that contributes to our understanding of all aspects of accounting"s role within organizations, markets or society. Canadian based, increasingly global in scope, CAR seeks to reflect the geographical and intellectual diversity in accounting research. To accomplish this, CAR will continue to publish in its traditional areas of excellence, while seeking to more fully represent other research streams in its pages, so as to continue and expand its tradition of excellence.
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