Fertility and immigration: Do immigrant mothers hand down their fertility pattern to the next generation? Evidence from Norway

IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Jostein Grytten , Irene Skau , Rune Sørensen
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Abstract

We examined whether the fertility pattern of immigrant mothers is handed down to the next generation. Our analyses were carried out on population register data. These data contained information on all immigrants to Norway from 123 countries during the period 1935–1995. We examined whether there was a relationship between the fertility rate in the country of origin and the number of children for generations 1.5 and 2 in Norway. We estimated three models: fixed effects for country of origin, fixed effects for region, and no fixed effects. The three specifications yielded estimates with overlapping confidence intervals. We interpret the estimates from the models with fixed effects for region, and the model with no fixed effects as upper-bound estimates. They show that an increase of 1.00 in the fertility rate in the country of origin leads to an average increase in the number of children of 0.12 (no fixed effects) or 0.14 (fixed effects for region) for immigrant women in generations 1.5 and 2. The estimate from the model with fixed effects for country of origin was small and not statistically significant at the conventional level. We interpret this as a lower-bound estimate. Our upper-bound estimates for generations 1.5 and 2 are smaller than the estimates for generation 1, i.e. there has been a decrease in the fertility rate from the first to the second generation. As a result, if the proportion of the population with an immigrant background continues to increase, it may increase at a slower rate in the future.

生育率与移民:移民母亲会将其生育模式传给下一代吗?挪威的证据
我们研究了移民母亲的生育模式是否会遗传给下一代。我们根据人口登记数据进行了分析。我们研究了原籍国的生育率与挪威第1.5代和第2代的子女人数之间是否存在关系。我们估计了三个模型:原籍国固定效应、地区固定效应和无固定效应。这三个模型得出的估计值的置信区间相互重叠。我们将地区固定效应模型和无固定效应模型的估计值解释为上限估计值。它们表明,原籍国生育率每增加 1.00,会导致第 1.5 代和第 2 代移民妇女的子女数量平均增加 0.12 个(无固定效应)或 0.14 个(地区固定效应)。原籍国固定效应模型的估计值很小,在常规水平上没有统计意义。我们将其解释为下限估计值。第 1.5 代和第 2 代的上限估计值小于第 1 代的估计值,即生育率从第 1 代下降到第 2 代。因此,如果具有移民背景的人口比例继续增加,其增长速度在未来可能会放缓。
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来源期刊
Economics & Human Biology
Economics & Human Biology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
12.00%
发文量
85
审稿时长
61 days
期刊介绍: Economics and Human Biology is devoted to the exploration of the effect of socio-economic processes on human beings as biological organisms. Research covered in this (quarterly) interdisciplinary journal is not bound by temporal or geographic limitations.
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