Cold Waves in European Russia: Structure, Circulation Conditions, and Changes in Seasonal Statistics

Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI:10.1134/s0001433823140050
M. Yu. Bardin, T. V. Platova
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Abstract

The statistics, structure, and variability of large-scale cold waves in various latitudinal zones of European Russia (ER) in the winter and summer seasons are considered. The largest number of waves is observed in winter in the south of ER and in summer in the north. The contribution to the total seasonal duration of the longest waves (more than 12 days) is observed in winter in the north (>40%); in summer, waves of such duration are not observed in the center and south of ER. Winter cold waves in all zones are characterized by areas of negative temperature anomaly, covering almost the entire territory of Russia, with centers in the corresponding zone of the ER and extending eastward up to 140° E. Summer waves have a three-field structure with centers of cold over ER and the west of Western Siberia and over Yakutia, and a positive anomaly in the eastern part of Western Siberia and western Central Siberia. Circulation structures in the troposphere accompanying the cold waves and their role in the formation of temperature anomalies are discussed. In winter, the H500 geopotential fields during waves in the center and south of ER are characterized by a powerful ridge over the north of ER and the Scandinavian Peninsula (which corresponds to the Scandinavian atmospheric circulation mode) and a trough in the south of ER and Western Siberia. Cold waves in the northern zone occur with a crest in the Atlantic north and a trough in the south (the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative phase) and a trough in the north of ER. Summer cold waves in all zones are accompanied by a cutoff cyclone centered in the corresponding zone (slightly to the north for waves in ER south); a negative geopotential anomaly over ER corresponds to the negative phase of East Atlantic–West Russia (EAWR) mode. The seasonal wave duration series during the 20th to the first two decades of the 21st centuries exhibits pronounced long-term variability with time scales of about a decade and several decades. In summer, there has been a downward trend in the seasonal duration of cold waves in all ER zones since the mid-1970s, especially significant (in terms of contribution to overall variability) in the south. In winter, a downward (insignificant) trend is observed only for waves in the north. In the south and especially in the center, the total duration of cold waves increases from the 1990s to the end of 2000s. The connection between this behavior of the total duration of winter waves and changes in the Atlantic–European sector leading circulation modes is discussed.

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欧洲俄罗斯的寒潮:结构、环流条件和季节统计变化
摘要 研究了欧洲俄罗斯(ER)各纬度地区冬季和夏季大尺度寒潮的统计数据、结构和变化情况。冬季在俄罗斯南部和夏季在北部观察到的寒潮数量最多。最长波浪(超过 12 天)对季节总持续时间的贡献出现在北部的冬季(40%);夏季,在俄罗斯中部和南部没有出现这种持续时间的波浪。所有区域的冬季寒潮都以气温负异常区为特征,几乎覆盖俄罗斯全境,中心位于东欧冷区的相应区域,并向东延伸至东经 140 度。夏季寒潮具有三场结构,寒潮中心位于东欧冷区、西西伯利亚西部和雅库特上空,而西西伯利亚东部和中西伯利亚西部则为正异常区。本文讨论了伴随寒潮出现的对流层环流结构及其在温度异常形成过程中的作用。在冬季,寒流中心和南部波浪期间的 H500 位势场的特点是,寒流北部和斯堪的纳维亚半岛上空有一个强大的脊(与斯堪的纳维亚大气环流模式相对应),寒流南部和西西伯利亚有一个低谷。北部地区的寒潮出现在大西洋北部的波峰和南部的波谷(北大西洋涛动(NAO)负相)以及东欧地区北部的波谷。所有区域的夏季寒潮都伴随着以相应区域为中心的截止气旋(东大西洋-西俄罗斯南部的寒潮略偏北);东大西洋-西俄罗斯上空的负位势异常与东大西洋-西俄罗斯模式(EAWR)的负相位相对应。20 世纪至 21 世纪前 20 年的季节性波浪持续时间序列表现出明显的长期变化,时间尺度约为 10 年和数十年。在夏季,自 20 世纪 70 年代中期以来,所有东欧区域的寒潮季节持续时间都呈下降趋势,尤其是在南部地区(对总体变化的影响)尤为显著。在冬季,只有北部的寒潮呈下降趋势(不明显)。在南部,尤其是中部,寒潮的总持续时间从 20 世纪 90 年代到 2000 年代末有所增加。讨论了冬季波浪总持续时间的这种行为与大西洋-欧洲扇面主导环流模式变化之间的联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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