Natural Unemployment and Activity Rates in Italy: Flow-based Determinants and Implications for Price Dynamics

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Francesco D’Amuri, Marta De Philippis, Elisa Guglielminetti, Salvatore Lo Bello
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Despite the magnitude and cyclicality of transitions into and out of the labor force, the literature generally considers unemployment as a sufficient statistic of labor market slack. We question this view by jointly estimating natural unemployment and participation rates through a Phillips curve informed by structural labor market flows. Focusing on Italy, a country where flows into and out of the labor force are particularly large, we find that the participation margin accounts for a significant share of total slack and explains one third of the missing inflation that followed the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Exploiting a reform that sharply and unexpectedly increased the statutory retirement age and expanded labor supply without directly affecting unemployment, we confirm that neglecting the participation gap biases inflation forecasts.
意大利的自然失业率和经济活动率:基于流量的决定因素及其对价格动态的影响
尽管进入和退出劳动力的转变幅度很大,而且具有周期性,但文献通常认为失业是劳动力市场松弛的充分统计数据。我们对这一观点提出了质疑,通过结构性劳动力市场流动的菲利普斯曲线共同估计自然失业率和参与率。以意大利为例,我们发现劳动力流入和流出特别大的国家,参与边际占了总闲置的很大一部分,并解释了2011年主权债务危机后三分之一的通胀缺失。利用一项在不直接影响失业率的情况下大幅提高法定退休年龄和扩大劳动力供应的改革,我们证实忽视参与率差距会影响通胀预测。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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