THE ECONOMICS OF WALKING ABOUT AND PREDICTING UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE USA

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-08-19 DOI:10.1017/nie.2022.18

David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.

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在美国四处走动和预测失业的经济学

我们展示了世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)和密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者预期指数，该指数提前18个月预测了美国全国和州一级的失业率上升。这些数据预测了美国国家经济研究局(NBER)商业周期确定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee)在衰退发生前6-18个月预测的过去6次衰退中的6次。2021年和2022年的消费者预期数据与衰退相符。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Institute Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The National Institute Economic Review is the quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, one of Britain"s oldest and most prestigious independent research organisations. The Institutes objective is to promote, through quantitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect peoples" lives so that they may be improved. It has no political affiliation, and receives no core funding from government. Its research programme is organised under the headings of Economic Modelling and Analysis; Productivity; Education and Training and the International Economy.