The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries

IF 2.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
John Knight
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Abstract

The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.
气候破坏对贫穷国家的直接和间接经济后果
关于温室气体排放对气候变化的不利影响的预测现已被接受。对经济、社会和政治后果的关注相对较少。这三者相互作用:前者将产生社会和政治影响,进而损害经济和经济福祉。这种对贫穷国家的分析借鉴了许多最近的证据和各种预测。气候破坏导致国内政治不稳定和冲突。有一种风险是,贫穷国家将在经济上被拖垮,从而削弱其政府的能力:一些国家将成为脆弱国家。国内移民很可能成为一个核心政策问题。然而,国际移民也将增长。气候破坏将使各国既相互合作又相互冲突。研究了对派遣国、邻近国家和目的地国家的影响。这种情况是可预测的,但应被视为一种警告。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
4.80%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: Environment and Development Economics is positioned at the intersection of environmental, resource and development economics. The Editor and Associate Editors, supported by a distinguished panel of advisors from around the world, aim to encourage submissions from researchers in the field in both developed and developing countries. The Journal is divided into two main sections, Theory and Applications, which includes regular academic papers and Policy Options, which includes papers that may be of interest to the wider policy community. Environment and Development Economics also publishes occasional Policy Fora (discussions based on a focal paper). From time to time the journal publishes special issues based on a particular theme.
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