EU agriculture under an import stop for food and feed

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
World Economy Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI:10.1111/twec.13537
Ferike Thom, Alexander Gocht, Harald Grethe
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self-sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended.
欧盟农业受到食品和饲料进口禁令的限制
最近国际贸易的中断对世界各地的消费者和生产者产生了重大影响,原因多种多样。本研究旨在通过检查食品和饲料产品的进口停止来确定欧盟农业的关键脆弱性。通过使用全球PE模型(CAPRI)进行这种程式化的模拟,作者分析了该部门内部的调整机制,调查了欧盟内部的区域差异,并测试了模型描述这种全面情景的能力。研究结果表明,油籽受进口停止影响最大,因为它们的进口份额很高。由于肉类依赖进口大豆作为动物饲料,因此受到间接影响,而其他自给自足水平较高的产品几乎没有受到影响。作为对进口停止的回应,欧盟扩大了产量,增加了氮的过剩,特别是在已经面临临界水平的地区。肉类生产部分迁出欧盟,增加了全球温室气体排放。欧盟消费者受到价格上涨的负面影响,导致欧盟整体福利下降,少数成员国例外。随着欧盟进口的减少,出口也会减少,从而影响到欧盟以外地区的价格和福利。在最不发达国家,价格上涨,特别是那些消费已经少于建议的产品。
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来源期刊
World Economy
World Economy Multiple-
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
8.00%
发文量
124
期刊介绍: The World Economy is a vital resource for researchers, analysts and policy-advisors interested in trade policy and other open economy issues embracing international trade and the environment, international finance, and trade and development. The journal also considers related areas such as economies in transition and development economics, making The World Economy an essential reference for in-depth knowledge on and up-to-date coverage of international economic relations.
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