Sensitivity of the nocturnal and polar boundary layer to transient phenomena

IF 1.7 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Amandine Kaiser, Nikki Vercauteren, Sebastian Krumscheid
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract. Numerical weather prediction and climate models encounter challenges in accurately representing flow regimes in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer and the transitions between them, leading to an inadequate depiction of regime occupation statistics. As a consequence, existing models exhibit significant biases in near-surface temperatures at high latitudes. To explore inherent uncertainties in modeling regime transitions, the response of the near-surface temperature inversion to transient small-scale phenomena is analyzed based on a stochastic modeling approach. A sensitivity analysis is conducted by augmenting a conceptual model for near-surface temperature inversions with randomizations that account for different types of model uncertainty. The stochastic conceptual model serves as a tool to systematically investigate what types of unsteady flow features, and in what contexts, may trigger abrupt transitions in the mean boundary layer state. The findings show that the incorporation of enhanced mixing, a common practice in numerical weather prediction models, blurs the two regime characteristic of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer. Simulating intermittent turbulence is shown to provide a potential workaround for this issue. Including key uncertainty in models could lead to a better statistical representation of the regimes in long-term climate simulation. This would help to improve our understanding and the forecasting of climate change especially in high-latitude regions.
夜间和极地边界层对瞬变现象的敏感性
摘要。数值天气预报和气候模式在准确表示稳定分层大气边界层中的流动型态及其之间的过渡时遇到了挑战,导致型态占用统计的描述不足。因此,现有模式在高纬度地区的近地表温度方面显示出明显的偏差。为了探索模式转变过程中固有的不确定性,基于随机建模方法分析了近地表温度反演对瞬态小尺度现象的响应。敏感性分析是通过增加一个概念模型的近地表温度反演与随机化,考虑不同类型的模式不确定性。随机概念模型可以作为一种工具,系统地研究哪些类型的非定常流动特征,以及在什么情况下,可能触发平均边界层状态的突变。研究结果表明,数值天气预报模式中常见的混合增强现象模糊了稳定分层大气边界层的两种状态特征。模拟间歇性湍流为这个问题提供了一个潜在的解决方案。在模型中加入关键的不确定性可以在长期气候模拟中更好地统计表征气候状况。这将有助于提高我们对气候变化的认识和预测,特别是在高纬度地区。
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来源期刊
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG) is an international, inter-/trans-disciplinary, non-profit journal devoted to breaking the deadlocks often faced by standard approaches in Earth and space sciences. It therefore solicits disruptive and innovative concepts and methodologies, as well as original applications of these to address the ubiquitous complexity in geoscience systems, and in interacting social and biological systems. Such systems are nonlinear, with responses strongly non-proportional to perturbations, and show an associated extreme variability across scales.
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