Predictive and incremental validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 for sexual recidivism: A diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA).

IF 3.3 2区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL
Psychological Assessment Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-07 DOI:10.1037/pas0001291
Lisa Holper, Enzo Cerullo, Andreas Mokros, Elmar Habermeyer
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 are internationally well-established instruments for predicting static and dynamic risks of sexual recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Previous meta-analyses assessed their predictive and incremental validity, but none has yet compared the two Static versions and the Static-STABLE combinations. Here, we implemented diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA) to compare all tests and identify optimal cutoffs in one comprehensive analysis. The DTA-NMA included 32 samples comprising 45,224 adult male individuals. More information was available on the Static-99 (22 samples; 34,316 individuals) and the Static-99R (13 samples; 27,243 individuals), compared to the Static-99/STABLE-2007 (three samples; 762 individuals), the Static-99R/STABLE-2007 (two samples; 2,972 individuals), and the STABLE-2007 (three samples; 816 individuals). The primary outcome was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The secondary outcomes were sensitivity and specificity. Optimal cutoffs were determined using the Youden index. The AUC suggested moderate predictive validity for Static-99 and Static-99R, whereas STABLE-2007 had no predictive value. The optimal cutoff of Static-99R was suggested to have higher specificity than that of Static-99, whereas sensitivity was comparable between instruments. The notion of incremental validity for STABLE-2007 could not be confirmed. This work represents the first meta-analysis to compare Static-99, Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and their combinations in one analysis. Static-99R demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting the risk of sexual recidivism, indicating a potential advantage in detecting true nonrecidivists. The findings are discussed, considering the current recommendations for assessing the risk of sexual recidivism in the criminal justice system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

静态-99、静态- 99r和稳定-2007对性累犯的预测效度和增量效度:一项诊断测试准确性网络元分析(DTA-NMA)。
static -99、static - 99r和STABLE-2007是国际上公认的工具,用于预测被定罪的性犯罪个体的静态和动态性再犯风险。先前的荟萃分析评估了它们的预测效度和增量效度,但还没有人比较过静态版本和静态-稳定组合。在这里,我们实施了诊断测试准确性网络荟萃分析(DTA-NMA)来比较所有测试并在一个综合分析中确定最佳截止点。DTA-NMA包括32个样本,包括45224名成年男性个体。关于Static-99(22个样本;34,316人)和Static-99R(13个样本;27,243人),而Static-99/STABLE-2007(三个样本;762人),Static-99R/STABLE-2007(2个样本;STABLE-2007(3个样本;816人)。主要终点是受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积。次要结果为敏感性和特异性。使用约登指数确定最佳截止点。AUC显示Static-99和Static-99R的预测效度中等,而STABLE-2007没有预测价值。结果表明,Static-99R的最佳截止值比Static-99具有更高的特异性,而不同仪器之间的灵敏度相当。STABLE-2007的增量效度概念不能被证实。这项工作是第一个在一个分析中比较Static-99、Static-99R、STABLE-2007及其组合的元分析。Static-99R在预测性再犯风险方面表现出最高的特异性,表明在检测真正的非再犯方面具有潜在的优势。考虑到目前评估刑事司法系统中性再犯风险的建议,讨论了调查结果。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c) 2023 APA,版权所有)。
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来源期刊
Psychological Assessment
Psychological Assessment PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL-
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
5.60%
发文量
167
期刊介绍: Psychological Assessment is concerned mainly with empirical research on measurement and evaluation relevant to the broad field of clinical psychology. Submissions are welcome in the areas of assessment processes and methods. Included are - clinical judgment and the application of decision-making models - paradigms derived from basic psychological research in cognition, personality–social psychology, and biological psychology - development, validation, and application of assessment instruments, observational methods, and interviews
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