Can criminal justice be predicted? Using regression analysis to predict judges’ decisions on petitions for new criminal trials

IF 1.9 4区医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL

Science & Justice Pub Date : 2023-12-03 DOI:10.1016/j.scijus.2023.12.001

Moa Lidén

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predictability of legal decisions is usually considered a prerequisite for the rule of law, following the maxim ‘like cases should be treated alike’. Yet, this presupposes that the case outcome can be predicted based on the merits of the case, rather than other factors. The purpose of this study was to test whether and to what extent legal decisions on petitions for new criminal trials can be predicted on the basis of other fairly superficial criteria that one could access without even reading the case file, e.g. which Court decided, whether the applicant had legal representation etc. To this end, all petitions for new criminal trials submitted to the Swedish Supreme Court and the six Courts of Appeal in the time period 2010–2020 (n = 3915) were reviewed. This data formed the basis of a regression model which was then used to predict decisions regarding petitions in 2021. On the basis of access to legal representation and crime type, the regression model predicted accurately 100 % of the decisions made in 2021. This raises questions about the evidentiary basis for the decisions and also the role of judges in situations where their decisions are fully predictable.

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刑事司法可以预测吗？利用回归分析预测法官对新刑事审判申请的决定

法律裁决的可预测性通常被认为是法治的先决条件，遵循 "同类案件应同等对待 "的格言。然而，这样做的前提是案件结果可以根据案情而非其他因素预测。本研究的目的是检验是否以及在多大程度上可以根据其他相当肤浅的标准来预测重新刑事审判申请的法律裁决，这些标准甚至无需阅读案件卷宗即可获得，例如哪个法院做出了裁决、申请人是否有法律代表等。为此，我们对 2010-2020 年间提交给瑞典最高法院和六个上诉法院的所有新刑事审判申请（n = 3915）进行了审查。这些数据构成了回归模型的基础，该模型随后被用于预测 2021 年有关请求的裁决。在获得法律代理和犯罪类型的基础上，回归模型对 2021 年做出的裁决进行了 100% 的准确预测。这就对裁决的证据基础以及法官在其裁决完全可预测的情况下的作用提出了质疑。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Science & Justice 医学-病理学

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

15.80%

发文量

审稿时长

81 days

期刊介绍： Science & Justice provides a forum to promote communication and publication of original articles, reviews and correspondence on subjects that spark debates within the Forensic Science Community and the criminal justice sector. The journal provides a medium whereby all aspects of applying science to legal proceedings can be debated and progressed. Science & Justice is published six times a year, and will be of interest primarily to practising forensic scientists and their colleagues in related fields. It is chiefly concerned with the publication of formal scientific papers, in keeping with its international learned status, but will not accept any article describing experimentation on animals which does not meet strict ethical standards. Promote communication and informed debate within the Forensic Science Community and the criminal justice sector. To promote the publication of learned and original research findings from all areas of the forensic sciences and by so doing to advance the profession. To promote the publication of case based material by way of case reviews. To promote the publication of conference proceedings which are of interest to the forensic science community. To provide a medium whereby all aspects of applying science to legal proceedings can be debated and progressed. To appeal to all those with an interest in the forensic sciences.