{"title":"Effects of the Colombia Peace negotiation process on gross domestic product per capita","authors":"Javiera Fanta, Gemma Larramona","doi":"10.1111/lamp.12316","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article attempts to determine whether the peace negotiation process initiated in Colombia that culminated with the Peace Treaty in 2016 had a positive economic effect, using the National Gross Domestic Product per capita as a measure. We apply a synthetic control method that is appropriate for a policy evaluation. Considering the anticipated and realized effects on economic variables, our results suggest that the Peace Treaty has positively influenced gross domestic product per capita. Furthermore, this positive effect has been maintained through 2021, the last available year of data. Data to 2021 show post-pandemic Colombia is better off when compared with a hypothetical Colombia—or synthetic Colombia—that did not begin a peace negotiation process.</p>","PeriodicalId":42501,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Policy","volume":"14 4","pages":"568-579"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lamp.12316","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Latin American Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12316","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This article attempts to determine whether the peace negotiation process initiated in Colombia that culminated with the Peace Treaty in 2016 had a positive economic effect, using the National Gross Domestic Product per capita as a measure. We apply a synthetic control method that is appropriate for a policy evaluation. Considering the anticipated and realized effects on economic variables, our results suggest that the Peace Treaty has positively influenced gross domestic product per capita. Furthermore, this positive effect has been maintained through 2021, the last available year of data. Data to 2021 show post-pandemic Colombia is better off when compared with a hypothetical Colombia—or synthetic Colombia—that did not begin a peace negotiation process.
期刊介绍：
Latin American Policy (LAP): A Journal of Politics and Governance in a Changing Region, a collaboration of the Policy Studies Organization and the Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Santa Fe Campus, published its first issue in mid-2010. LAP’s primary focus is intended to be in the policy arena, and will focus on any issue or field involving authority and polities (although not necessarily clustered on governments), agency (either governmental or from the civil society, or both), and the pursuit/achievement of specific (or anticipated) outcomes. We invite authors to focus on any crosscutting issue situated in the interface between the policy and political domain concerning or affecting any Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) country or group of countries. This journal will remain open to multidisciplinary approaches dealing with policy issues and the political contexts in which they take place.
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